Dr. Facui wrote in The New England Journal of Medicine “…the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza ” The result of antibody testing around the world is proving him right.
Stanford Study (Under Peer Review): “These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.” (Estimated CFR: 0.12 – 0.2%)
COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California | medRxiv
CodonCode Corporation (Under Peer Review): “The results indicate that confirmed case numbers understate the actual number of infections substantially; during rapid growth phases where the daily growth rate can reach or exceed 30%, as has been seen in many countries, the confirmed case numbers under-report actual infections by up to 50 to 100-fold.”
USC Study: “Adjusting this estimate for the statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has an antibody to the virus — which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have been infected. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county at the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.” (Estimated CFR: 0.2%)
Antibody testing results: COVID-19 infections exceed confirmed cases
German Cluster Study: Around 15 percent had been infected , allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.
For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent . (Estimated CFR: 0.37%)
Preliminary German Study Shows a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate of About 0.4 Percent – Reason.com
NY Antibody Study: “More than 21 percent of around 1,300 people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week were found to have them , Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday. It would also mean that the fatality rate from the virus was relatively low, about 0.5 percent, Mr. Cuomo said.” (Estimated CFR: 0.5%)
Cuomo Says 21% of Those Tested in N.Y.C. Had Virus Antibodies – The New York Times
The Lancet, Hubei China (prior to antibody testing): “Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age.” (Estimated CFR: 0.66%)
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis – The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Boston Homeless Shelter: “A total of 147 participants (36.0%) had PCR test results positive for SARS-CoV-2. Men constituted 84.4% of individuals with PCR-positive results and 64.4% of individuals with PCR-negative results. Among individuals with PCR test results positive for SARS-CoV-2, cough (7.5%), shortness of breath (1.4%), and fever (0.7%) were all uncommon, and 87.8% were asymptomatic.”
Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Boston | Infectious Diseases | JAMA | JAMA Network