1. Vaccine Passports ignore the naturally immune. – Natural immunity is durable and long lasting to the point that if you’ve had COVID-19 you will probably make antibodies for a lifetime. The NIH highlights natural immunity while stating they hope that vaccine induced immunity will be similar. A pre-print out of Israel shows both natural […]
Tag: COVID
The Case for Unmasking NJ’s Children
There is growing evidence to support the unmasking of New Jersey’s children. Masks mandates don’t reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in school. All teachers that want vaccinations have received them. Children are at very low risk from COVID-19. Children are less likely to transmit infection than adults. Masks are not benign mitigation approaches. Below is a […]
Pfizer/BioN Tech COVID-19 Vaccine Concerns
1. Vaccine Safety: A. No Long-Term Data:We do not have safety data for this vaccine beyond the two months of phase 3 data that has been released. There is a legitimate concern that if too many people cross over from the placebo group to the vaccine group, there will never be enough data to establish […]
The Overwhelming Evidence for Keeping Schools Open
Pediatrics releases a study looking at incidence of secondary transmission in schools and found: “Over 9 weeks, 11 participating school districts had more than 90,000 students and staff attend school in-person; of these, there were 773 community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections documented by molecular testing. Through contact tracing, NC health department staff determined an additional 32 infections […]
How to tell the magnitude of NJ’s second wave?
In an effort to understand if NJ is currently undergoing a second wave of COVID-19 we will review four key metrics – reproductive number over time (Rt), cases, hospitalizations, and deaths – and how best to understand what is reported in the context of normal seasonal viruses. 1. Rt: The reproductive number calculated over time, […]
COVID-19 Update: Vaccine trials, herd immunity, & lockdowns
Will covid-19 vaccines save lives? Current trials aren’t designed to tell us. We’ve heard from many leaders that we will not return to normal until a vaccine arrives. This statement assumes the vaccine will prevent spread and reduce serious disease. Unfortunately, we won’t know that from the current clinical trials. A recent feature in the […]
Did the Lockdowns Help or Hurt?
Help – The jury is still out The mainstream media seems convinced that the lockdowns helped to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2, reduced hospitalizations, and limited the death toll from COVID-19. The below graph calls that assumption into question as it show the UK and Peru, both strongly locked down, with the roughly the same […]
Why COVID-19 is most likely over in NJ
The curve & Farr’s Law In the mid-19th century, Dr. William Farr, observed that epidemic events rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a bell-shaped curve. He noticed that this time-evolution behavior could be captured by a single mathematical formula (“Farr’s law”) that could be used for epidemic forecasting. […]
CDC, Oxford, Stanford Agree, COVID-19 IFR is under 0.3%
In late May the CDC came out with its best estimates of the symptomatic case fatality ratio and percent of asymptomatic infections. Using these estimates: Case Fatality Rate is 0.4% Infection Fatality Rate is 0.26% That is for all age groups. When you look at just the CFR estimates per age group: 0 – 49 […]
Antibody Testing Proving Fauci right about low CFR for COVID
Dr. Fauci wrote in The New England Journal of Medicine “…the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza ”